Synopsis:
High pressure is moving out to sea. A cold front will drop rain Mon. night through Wed. A nor'easter is on tap for Thursday AM.
Models Used: 12Z Runs of NAM (HiRes 4 km), GFS, ECMWF; SREF 15Z Plumes
Short-term:
The front dries out after dumping an inch over Erie. Total Rain across the rest of PA0.05 to 0.25 inches. Temps stay near 50 for highs across the Commonwealth until the front crosses on Wed.
Long-Range:
A nor'easter is coming Thursday morning: light, mixed precip at onset during the early morning; rapidly intensifying and changing to snow during the (noting the 850-mb 0°C isotherm is in NJ, and 540-m 1000-500-mb thickness is in SErn PA). Light snow from the wee hrs. Friday into Saturday. The track and timing is still to be determined. It will leave very cold conditions in its wake.
-Jaron Breen
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