Synopsis:
High pressure will build into the region for the first half of the week, allowing for mostly sunny skies and overall fair conditions. Scattered showers may move into the state on Thursday, associated with a region of low pressure.
Short-Term:
As now-Tropical Storm Irene continues to move up into New England, the 1200 UTC runs of WRF and GFS suggest that a broad area of high pressure will build over the state into the beginning of the week. The relative humidity projections from the 1200 UTC NAM runs show the corresponding lack of moisture at all levels in the atmosphere. We accordingly forecasted mostly sunny to sunny skies through at least Wednesday. The latest run of the SREF plumes shows no precipitation falling through Wednesday; after the ascent in precipitation totals due to the outer rainbands from Irene today, the 3-hour precipitation projections completely level off.
Long-Term:
All long-term model guidance (focusing on the 1200 UTC runs of WRF and GFS) suggests that a region of low pressure will approach Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing a chance for some showers and even thunderstorms. It is a little too early to be precise on extent and intensity of the precipitation, so we were appropriately vague in our forecasts for precipitation for Thursday
No comments:
Post a Comment