Technical Discussion

Looking at the new model runs I stayed with consensus for the next few days as a high pressure system moves into the area. Both the GFS and NAM agree. I am worried about the upper level trough/vort max moving through which could produce a few clouds, but with the 700mb showing dry I went with mostly sunny instead of just sunny. The high seems to stick around until Wednesday when an upper level disturbance moves through. Both GFS and NAM have this disturbance and the main threat seems to just be a few more clouds will be around. I wouldn't be surprised with the instability aloft if a few thunderstorms form over the mountains due to high level source heating, but Im keeping it out of the forecast. Both models seem to be heading towards isolated showers and thunderstorms for Thursday as the upper level disturbance moves through. I put showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but I think these will die out as the heating of the day is gone, so I took it out of tomorrow night. Friday and Saturday's temperatures will be probably be higher than mos as we are prefrontal, but I kept showers and thunderstorms out of forecast for Friday as the models are still uncertain. It is something to keep an eye on.


Nick Marguccio