A cold front is coming, but first, that warm front has brought quite a warm spell to the Commonwealth, huh? Temperatures in the 50s and 60s won't last as a powerful "arctic" cold front is blasting through the central plains and southeastern U.S. at this time. It'll get to the state tomorrow night and be out of here Tuesday morning. A strong high pressure system will then move in from the west, bringing us the cold air.
Models used: 12Z NAM & GFS
Short-Term:
Highs are in the 60s throughout PA and will be for the day tomorrow. The front will bring showers, maybe some thunder, to the state as it passes. Given the warm air in place and severe weather climatology, thunder cannot be ruled out in the western and southern portions of PA. Once the front passes, temperatures could drop by as much as a degree Fahrenheit per HOUR!!! Some places in Oklahoma have achieved rates that high. This is typical "behavior" of an arctic cold front.
Long-Range:
The projected intensity of the high may reach the 1040-mb mark, a typical aspect of a Continental Arctic air mass. Also, the Arctic Oscillation is projected to go negative, allowing for cold air to invade the U.S.
5-15 Days Out: Trends are hinting at a nor'easter set-up around the Thanksgiving holiday. There appears to be no warm air invasions before this storm and the NAO is going negative over the course of next weekend, a favorable indication of an east coast storm track and snow as the primary precipitation type. However, just like Sandy about three weeks ago, it's far away but worth watching.
-Jaron Breen
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