General Discussion:
Cloudy skies will begin to clear tonight as high pressure approaches from the northwest. An area of low pressure in the southeastern states will slide up the coast during the work week. Election Day should be dry, but clouds will build overnight as we await the precipitation. Most of the precipitation, snow, will be confined to the eastern half of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening: rain and mixed precipitation is anticipated east of I-476; the heaviest snow is likely in the Susquehanna River Valley; and light snow in the mountains of central PA is probable. There is another scenario where this storm goes out to sea, which after Sandy's destruction would be ideal. However, based on the models' performance with Sandy, the latter, "out-to-sea" scenario is least likely to occur. After the snow clears, clouds will linger for the remainder of the work week. Temperatures, throughout this week, will stay below average.
Models:
12Z GFS: Out to sea; 12Z European had the storm closer to the coast. I think we all know which model performed the best with Sandy.
Note (High Pres):
If that high takes a more northerly route and all else stays the same, you can scratch the rain & mixed precip. for the Delaware River Valley.
Note (Amounts/ Ratio):
I think a 10:1 ratio works well. 2-4" Central PA; 4-8" Along & W. of Susquehanna River (SR); 3-6" East of SR to I-476; 2-4" along I-476; coating to 2" before the changeover in eastern PA.
-Jaron Breen
Cloudy skies will begin to clear tonight as high pressure approaches from the northwest. An area of low pressure in the southeastern states will slide up the coast during the work week. Election Day should be dry, but clouds will build overnight as we await the precipitation. Most of the precipitation, snow, will be confined to the eastern half of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening: rain and mixed precipitation is anticipated east of I-476; the heaviest snow is likely in the Susquehanna River Valley; and light snow in the mountains of central PA is probable. There is another scenario where this storm goes out to sea, which after Sandy's destruction would be ideal. However, based on the models' performance with Sandy, the latter, "out-to-sea" scenario is least likely to occur. After the snow clears, clouds will linger for the remainder of the work week. Temperatures, throughout this week, will stay below average.
Models:
12Z GFS: Out to sea; 12Z European had the storm closer to the coast. I think we all know which model performed the best with Sandy.
Note (High Pres):
If that high takes a more northerly route and all else stays the same, you can scratch the rain & mixed precip. for the Delaware River Valley.
Note (Amounts/ Ratio):
I think a 10:1 ratio works well. 2-4" Central PA; 4-8" Along & W. of Susquehanna River (SR); 3-6" East of SR to I-476; 2-4" along I-476; coating to 2" before the changeover in eastern PA.
-Jaron Breen
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