Synopsis
With High Pressure looming in the state and across the Appalachians, this stagnant high will remain in place until a strong low pressure cell passé to our northeast this Sunday. This will be a rain system primarily, but next week will show some intrigue with I midweek coastal storm followed by a Nor'easter potential for next weekend, starting off the official winter season with real winter cold
Short Term (Now thru Saturday Morning)
High pressure will remain stagnant in the state from now until Saturday morning, maintaining our current pattern of sunshine and average cool weather. The pattern will progress as southerly flow increases with the progression of a ridge, allowing some warmer air to creep up, putting our highs for Friday and Saturday in the mid to upper 40s mosly, and keeping lows scattered in the mid 20s to low 30s. As day turns to night Saturday, hings will begin to change.
Long Term (Saturday Evening thru Monday)
During the night Saturday, an approaching trough will shake things up as the surface pressure gradient intensifies, bringing stroner winds overnight into Sunday morning. The 12z GFS ensemble members show little disagreement on the shape of the storm, mostly, but some outliers place the rain to our south, however the members uin agreement start precipitating here around 12z to 15z Sunday. Then, as the PVA begins to deform the system, only 5 of the 12 members keep rain here on Monday. In comparison, the 18z NAM locates the omma further north, has bringing in rain starting 3 to 6z Sunday, and leaves just a stray shower by 6z Monday. The 12z Euro, widens the precip area across the East Coast, starting rain around 6z Sunday and not leaving until Tuesday. These discrepancies are due to the poor phasing of the 500mg height pattern with all models, so this should be looked into more as time progresses, but for now, we can say no snow this weekend, a low chance for next wefnesday, and a high chance for snow with the Nor'Easter hat's due next weekend (12z Euro shows it 10 days out)
Steve Engblom Dos
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