Synopsis: Northwest flow will continue to advect cooler air into the region as high pressure builds in for tomorrow. Seasonable temperatures and tranquil conditions are expected until a more unsettled pattern sets in for the weekend.
Short Term: Strato cumulus clouds will persist through the evening, before dissipating overnight. This clearing will allow for radiative cooling. Temps in the low 20's are not out of the question for upper elevations. 500mb ridge will approach the region tomorrow. Evident upper level convergence is expected. Dry and tranquil conditions will be the story for tomorrow. Persistence method could be used for temperatures, as there is not much change from today. As the ridge axis passes late tomorrow, we will find ourselves in warm advection, so tomorrow nights lows will not be as bone-chilling as tonights.
Long Term: As high pressure departs, the upper level flow becomes zonal. Several disturbances will pass to our north in the long term. The first of these, a small area of 500mb shear vorticity, will set up in the Ohio valley early Friday. Upper level divergence ahead of it will cause upward motion over the commonwealth. Temperatures will be below freezing for points north of State College, after a very chilly night. There is a potential for freezing rain in northern zones early Friday, before changing to all rain as temps warm through the day. Another shortwave will move to our north on Saturday dropping a weak cold front through the region. Nothing more than a few showers is expected. The real threat comes early next week, as a classic winter cyclone approaches from the southeast. Models are converging on a solution that brings through the great lakes. This puts our region in the warm sector, meaning we can expect above average temperatures in the long term.
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