Monday Morning Technical Discussion

Synopsis

A series of small disturbances will affect the Commonwealth throughout the week.  The first, a cold front passing through the state on Tuesday, will bring light rain mostly to the western third of the state.  On Wednesday, a system tracking up the coast will bring rain to the Southeast while a less organized system moves in from the west, bringing more light rain and possibly even snow showers.  Lake-effect rain and snow showers are likely on Thursday and into Friday in the Northeast.  Temperatures will drop after Monday, hanging mostly in the low 50s and 40s throughout the week, although highs in the Southeast will likely stay in the mid-50s.

Short-Term (Through 0z Thursday)

A cold front passing through the region on Tuesday will bring the Commonwealth its first prolonged stretch of chilly air, with highs in the low 50s and high 40s.  Precipitation is likely to remain in the western third of the country as the system looks to be deteriorating as it approaches the mountains.  The GFS and NAM both expect a coastal low to affect the Southeast on Wednesday, although the NAM is a bit more robust with its QPF amounts.  Some snow is possible in the northern and western parts of the state and at higher elevations, but accumulation is unlikely.

Long-Term (Past 0z Thursday)

Following the two systems on Wednesday, no organized precipitation is likely.  The only likely precipitation will be in the northwestern part of the state, where lake-effect rain and snow showers will affect the region.  Temperatures will remain in the low-50s and high 40s late in the week, with Philadelphia in the mid- to high-50s.

~Patrick Higgins