Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Tuesday Night Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

High pressure will continue to build over the northeast for the rest of the week. A coastal low will slowly make its way up the coast and its associated bands of rain will approach the region and provide a chance for showers Wednesday night through Friday night. A cold front will approach the region Sunday from the west and push the coastal low east and provide a slight chance for scattered showers.

                                                      

Short Term (Tuesday night through Wednesday):

High pressure will sit over the northeastern states dry air, and calm winds will provide clear skies and cool temperatures overnight Tuesday with some areas of frost. Lows could get to the mid to upper 30's for the northern counties and higher elevations but mid to upper 50's for low temperatures in the southwestern counties indicated by the 18Z 12km NAM. Wednesday looks to be another clear day with an easterly flow, which will usher in clouds for the afternoon and evening hours.

 

Long Term (Wednesday night into the weekend):

A coastal low-pressure system will slowly creep up the coast throughout the week and the high pressure over the northeast provide an easterly flow to enhance the regions chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Friday night. The 18Z NAM is indicating a significant event for much of the state; however, the 18Z GFS keeps the majority of the precipitation to our east, as do the majority of the 21Z SREF members. Expect the best chance for precipitation for the southeastern counties. The low pressure will sit on the coast for the weekend but the chance for precipitation is miniscule, as the easterly flow will diminish and the high pressure will provide dry air aloft. A cold front will approach the state from the west on Sunday, which will push the coastal low out to sea and provide a chance for some scattered showers across the state during the day.

 

~ A.J. Herbert

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