Synopsis:
High pressure will continue to drop off through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the state Wednesday night. The front will stall over the state Wednesday night into Thursday and bring showers to the region Wednesday night through late Thursday night. High pressure will follow the passage of the front and provide clear and dry conditions with cooler temperatures for the end of the week into the weekend. A deep trough will dig into the region Saturday night into Sunday along with a cold front passing north of the region and provide a chance for scattered showers along with colder air.
Short Term: (Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Pressure will continue to drop as a cold front approaches the area. High dew point temperatures and light winds indicated by the 10m winds on the 18Z 4km NAM will provide a chance for low-level clouds and fog. The 18Z NAM and GFS, as well as the 18Z 3km HRRR, agree with the front reaching northwestern counties by around 9Z. The showers will be spotty across the state as the front stalls and weakens Wednesday night.
Long Term: (Thursday into the weekend)
A separate low-pressure system to the south will move along the stalled front northeasterly across the state Thursday night. Behind this disturbance, high pressure will follow, bringing clear and dry conditions with cooler air. The 18Z 12km NAM has low temperatures reaching the upper 30's for the extreme western portions of the state. These cool and clear conditions will persist into Saturday, when a deep trough will approach the state from the west along with a cold front. The front will pass near the state and provide a scattered chance of showers, especially for northwestern counties Saturday night. Cold air advection will follow behind the passage of the low-pressure system to the northeast, which will be amplified by the deep trough of 500mb heights. High pressure will build over the region for the beginning of the workweek.
~ A.J. Herbert
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