Synopsis...
A clipper system and a strengthening low pressure system in the southern United States outline the big events for this forecast period. Neither system will bring a ton of snow, and the bitter cold weather will disappear until Monday.
Short Term...
Thursday looks to be a carbon copy of Wednesday: overcast skies for the commonwealth with temperatures below freezing and no bitter wind chill. An upper level shortwave picked up by the 18Z GFS model indicates a good old fasioned "Alberta Clipper" in store for the commonwealth on Friday. The low pressure associated with this system should pass by far north (in Southern Canada). For this reason, I would not expect very much precipitation out of this system, which the MOS precipitation outputs indicate. Many areas, especially in the northern regions, will not receive more than a dusting to an inch of snow (with higher amounts in the higher elevations). The approach of the clipper later in the day Friday will allow for temperatures to climb above the freezing mark for the first time on Friday for most areas.
Long Term...
Temperatures throughout the state will remain above the freezing mark through the weekend. An approaching warm front associated with a strengthening low pressure system at this time may allow for temperatures to reach the upper 30s/low 40s in the southwestern regions. The WRF, however, indicates a transition in the location of the low pressure system - the center of the low pressure system will redevelop off the Atlantic Seaboard near Virginia. Most of the moisture associated with this system will funnel well off the coast, so any precipitation associated with this system will be light. Most areas can expect a mix of rain and snow, especially in the southern regions, with a better chance of snow in the northern regions. Once this system moves up the Atlantic Seaboard, a few "backdoor" snow showers will move through the western part of the state. On Monday, this low pressure system will be far enough into Canada to induce a NW flow, meaning lake-effect snow and bitterly cold temperatures will return (just in time for finals week). Most MOS runs show high temperatures staying below the 20 degree mark for the commonwealth, with very breezy winds.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
A clipper system and a strengthening low pressure system in the southern United States outline the big events for this forecast period. Neither system will bring a ton of snow, and the bitter cold weather will disappear until Monday.
Short Term...
Thursday looks to be a carbon copy of Wednesday: overcast skies for the commonwealth with temperatures below freezing and no bitter wind chill. An upper level shortwave picked up by the 18Z GFS model indicates a good old fasioned "Alberta Clipper" in store for the commonwealth on Friday. The low pressure associated with this system should pass by far north (in Southern Canada). For this reason, I would not expect very much precipitation out of this system, which the MOS precipitation outputs indicate. Many areas, especially in the northern regions, will not receive more than a dusting to an inch of snow (with higher amounts in the higher elevations). The approach of the clipper later in the day Friday will allow for temperatures to climb above the freezing mark for the first time on Friday for most areas.
Long Term...
Temperatures throughout the state will remain above the freezing mark through the weekend. An approaching warm front associated with a strengthening low pressure system at this time may allow for temperatures to reach the upper 30s/low 40s in the southwestern regions. The WRF, however, indicates a transition in the location of the low pressure system - the center of the low pressure system will redevelop off the Atlantic Seaboard near Virginia. Most of the moisture associated with this system will funnel well off the coast, so any precipitation associated with this system will be light. Most areas can expect a mix of rain and snow, especially in the southern regions, with a better chance of snow in the northern regions. Once this system moves up the Atlantic Seaboard, a few "backdoor" snow showers will move through the western part of the state. On Monday, this low pressure system will be far enough into Canada to induce a NW flow, meaning lake-effect snow and bitterly cold temperatures will return (just in time for finals week). Most MOS runs show high temperatures staying below the 20 degree mark for the commonwealth, with very breezy winds.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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