Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

 

A halt in the lake effect snow for today will give way to partly sunny skies in the western portion of the state and clearer conditions in the eastern portion of the state.  A clipper system will move to our north tomorrow...with minimal precipitation possible in the northern section of the state.  Saturday looks to be mostly cloudy, but dry.  Things get interesting Sunday into Monday as a warm front associated with a low pressure system combined with a secondary low off the coast will impact the area.

 

Short Term:

 

After that dosing of snow we had last night, things appear to be calming down throughout PA as far as lake effect snow goes.  High pressure will be moving in from the west, which will halt the lake effect snow that we've been seeing the past few days.  Some lingering snow showers are still present in northwestern PA today as low level convergence is still present, however, they should decrease in intensity by the afternoon today.  So, any accumulations today would most likely be in the northwest section of the state.  700 mb relative humidity moisture values overall are forecasted to be low throughout the day today and overnight.  Overall, most of the western half of the state, including most of central PA will see Partly Sunny skies today, with the eastern half of the state having more broken clouds and clearer conditions.  A clipper system will be the next weather maker on Friday.  However, the clipper should move to the north of the region, meaning that there will be minimal precipitation.  Northern parts of the state may receive a dusting to an inch.  The clipper will allow for temperatures to climb above the freezing mark for most areas.  Saturday is looking like a dry day.  700mb moisture is low, but clouds seem to stick around for most areas.

 

Long Term:

 

Things start to get interesting on Sunday into Monday morning as a warm front associated with a low pressure system will develop and strengthen to the west of us.  This is a tricky situation because it seems as if the low pressure system to our west is transitioning its energy to a secondary low pressure system off the North Carolina/Virginia coastline.  The 12Z WRF has the rain/snow line moving from west to east with areas in the western and central portion of the state receiving rain to snow and areas in the eastern portion of the state getting mainly rain.  When the system finally moves out on Monday, a Northwesterly flow will take place.  Lake effect snow showers could potentially return, creating a situation similar to what we've had the last few days.

 

 

Forecaster:  Frank Vecchio