The record breaking heat that has draped itself across the state is on its way out, and the state will be dropping back into an average temperature regime, with warm advection late in the week serving as the odd days in the forecast/ otherwise, the daily progression of theweek's weather is like a roller coaster: we start stormy, cool, dry, and clear for the next day, then clouds with storms possible, followed by calmer weather. The weekend outlook will be intriguing, with several different scenarios leaving the possibility for a winter whiteout in the East.
Short term (Monday Night thru Tuesday)
The heat will remain in place for tonight, allowing for convection and synoptic lift along the cold front to bring the potential for thunderstorms within the western and central thirds of the state, with decreasing probabilities from west to east. Although the GFS and NAM back down on activity, the 15z SREF has a 70% POP for western PA around 0z to 3z tonight. After this, high pressure builds in from the northwest to bring drier conditions to the state while CAA from the front cools the state down into the 60s. Although the front is presents, the mean flow behind the front currently remains southwesterly, and temperatures behind the front are about 5 to 8 degrees cooler, not very significant. Tuesday will remain dry with a NW wind allowing for gravity eave cloud formation, hinting at scattered cloud cover for Tuesday afternoon, with a potential convective shower. CAPE values remain low, and high pressure is contributing to reduced winds along the surface and within the mixed layer.
Long Term (Wednesday to the weekend)
Wednesday will be interesting due to model disagreement on a shortwave progressing across the Tennessee valley. The NAM indicates an undeveloped shortwave that helps the precip it generates remain in the Carolinas, but the GFS has a develop shortwant that drag rain along the MD border, giving southern areas the potential for clouds and showers in the afternoon. The SREf's leave no chance for rain within the entire state, leaving conern for a dry presence all day Wednesday. For Thursday, a cold front stemming from a low dragging across Canada will bring clouds during the day with continued WAA under the clouds, allowing for a rather warm but muggy Thursday, and the WAA persists into Friday with a defined warm front heating the state into the 70s and 80s like today, and pushing rain showers along a cold front that is projected to hit overnight Friday into Saturday.
**Note: keep an eye on the forecast for next Monday (4-23), the Euro and CMC hint at a Spring snowstorm for the East, mainly along the Appalachians.**
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