Synopsis:
An area of high pressure is heading northeast and a weak warm front will head north through portions of the western and central Great Lakes over the next day or two. To start, temperatures for the rest of the week will head back into the 70s by Friday as an upper level trough and surface cold front approach the area on Friday, influencing the weather for Blue and White Weekend and early next week.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS, ECMWF, & CMC; MOS & Teleconnections also used
Short-term:
Friday will be the peak heating of the weekend as the cold front is right on our doorstep but moving very slowly. 850 mb Temps will be between 8 and 12 degrees Celsius.
Long-range:
Nor'easter could arrive for Monday/ Tuesday (mostly rain) as a long-wave 500 mb trough splits over the Plains, the southern branch then forms a cut-off low, which phases just to our north on Monday. Models are in general agreement with this scenario.
Thicknesses will be too high for snow but the NAO is heading for neutral. When the upper-level CLOSED low heads our way, the thicknesses will be around 534 Dm and the 850 mb temp. will be around -5 to 0 degrees Celsius next week, so wet snow in the higher elevations cannot be ruled out.
-Jaron Breen
An area of high pressure is heading northeast and a weak warm front will head north through portions of the western and central Great Lakes over the next day or two. To start, temperatures for the rest of the week will head back into the 70s by Friday as an upper level trough and surface cold front approach the area on Friday, influencing the weather for Blue and White Weekend and early next week.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS, ECMWF, & CMC; MOS & Teleconnections also used
Short-term:
Friday will be the peak heating of the weekend as the cold front is right on our doorstep but moving very slowly. 850 mb Temps will be between 8 and 12 degrees Celsius.
Long-range:
Nor'easter could arrive for Monday/ Tuesday (mostly rain) as a long-wave 500 mb trough splits over the Plains, the southern branch then forms a cut-off low, which phases just to our north on Monday. Models are in general agreement with this scenario.
Thicknesses will be too high for snow but the NAO is heading for neutral. When the upper-level CLOSED low heads our way, the thicknesses will be around 534 Dm and the 850 mb temp. will be around -5 to 0 degrees Celsius next week, so wet snow in the higher elevations cannot be ruled out.
-Jaron Breen
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