Thursday, January 27, 2011

Forecast Discussion

Synopsis...

A series of weak clipper systems will move through the commonwealth over the next 5 days. None of them appear to be that strong, but could add a couple of inches of snow to the current snow pack. Temperatures will hover near and slightly below average throughout the week.

Short Term...

The European and 18Z GFS models agree that a weak disturbance will move into the western part of the state late in the day on Thursday going into early Friday morning. Both models indicate a relative lack of moisture, so snow accumulations from this system will range from a dusting to an inch or so of snow. A secondary clipper system will follow this system late in the day on Friday. All models agree that this system will be stronger than the previous one, and will cause accumulations to range from 1-3 inches statewide. This system will also dive into the central and eastern parts of the state in addition to the western part. Temperatures over these three days will be persistent as geostrophic flow, wind and cloud cover maintain similarly over these couple days.

Long Term...

Sunday should remain mostly dry and cooler compared to the previous days as cold Canadian air builds in behind the passing clipper systems. The next real area of concern will come later in the day on Monday as another broad but weaker clipper system descends its way through the commonwealth. The timing and strength will be keys to watch as the week progresses.


Andrew Dzambo


We Are... Penn State Meteorology


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