Sunday Morning Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Scattered lake effect in the central portions of the state will die down during the day.  Monday is a clear day, but a clipper system from the north moves through the region with light snow.  Tuesday we clear out again only to have clouds roll back in from a potential major storm to our south.  Wednesday the storm provides snow for the state, and departs by Wednesday night.  Lake effect snow begins again out west for Thursday.

Short-term:

Both the NAM and GFS show lake effect snow for Sunday, and radar confirms at 13z of that lake effect snow.  Both models show the clearing that will occur Sunday night into Monday.  Monday looks to be a nice clear cold day with temperatures around 20.  Both models show a clipper system moving into the Great Lakes.  The NAM is faster than the GFS so we did a compromise.  Snow will develop 1^st in the west and last in the east, and will clear out the same way.  By the end of morning rush hour the snow should be out of the eastern half of the state.

Long-term:

Clearing from the clipper system will occur on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies.  But it will not last.  A storm system from the south is taking aim at us.  The NAM is quicker than the GFS, and the EURO model appears to be on the same track as timing with the NAM and might even be a little faster.  So a compromise was made between the NAM and GFS for Tuesday night with increasing clouds for the state.  For Wednesday, the 500mb height low will be over the surface low as the low tracks to the west of us.  A compromise was made between the GFS and EURO.  Snow will overspread the state with the moderate-heavy in the eastern & central portions and lighter snow in the western sections.  After the storm departs the area Wednesday night, lake effect snow will being out west for Thursday.

The GFS MOS got to warm for our forecast period from Tuesday night to Thursday, so we are off by at most 3-4 degrees.