Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

A persistent upper level trough will remain over the area the rest of this week and into the weekend. A cold front will push its way through the commonwealth early Wednesday bringing with it colder air for the remainder of the week. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and will provide the state with partly cloudy skies. A low pressure system will move into the region Thursday evening bringing with it moderate snowfall amounts across the state. Bone-chilling air moves in behind this system bringing the coldest temperatures seen this winter for the weekend.

Short-term:

Mixed precipitation and snow in the higher elevations is possible Wednesday morning across the Laurel Highlands thanks to orographic lifting and in northeast due to lake effect. Since much of Lake Erie is frozen, this will be short lived and hard to maintain. Precipitaiton will cease by midday. High pressure will begin to build across the region during the afternoon on Wednesday and provide pleasant but chilly conditions across the state Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday. This will be short lived since the next system will begin to make its way into the region Thursday evening.

Long-term:

The system making its way into the region Thursday night looks to be taking a more southern track. Previous model runs had the system taking a more northerly track. Both the GFS and the WRF are bringing the low well to the south of the Mason-Dixon line and bringing it up the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The heaviest precipitation looks to be in the eastern parts of the state and on the western half of New Jersey. Precipitation amounts are still uncertain but a majority of the state should see moderate snowfall amounts. Snowfall amounts will need to be determined at later shifts. This system will rapidly move up the coast Friday afternoon. Snow will taper off by morning in the west, midday across the central parts of the state, and early afternoon for the eastern parts. Behind this system gusty winds will advect cold air southward out of Canada. The 510 thickness line will make an appearance over the northern parts of the state late Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures across much of the state will be in the teens to lower 20s which will be by far the coldest air we have seen thus far this season.

~ Alto