Technical Discussion 1-17-11

Technical Discussion 1-17-11

 

Synopsis:

 

A moderately strong storm system will move its way up the east coast, while a secondary area of low pressure located over the midwest will move towards the east coast as well. These two systems will join together off the NJ coast bringing the most precipitation to eastern parts of the state. Another shot of snow will move in Thursday evening into Friday bringing possibly some measureable snow to much of the state, followed by some frigid air moving in for the weekend.

 

Short Term:

 

The main story for the next 2-3 days is the coastal storm system that will bring a mix bag of precipitation to the Commonwealth. Both the GFS and WRF models show the brunt of the storm impacting more of the eastern half of the state as the midwestern low pressure system will only bring light precipitation to the western part of the state. The 12z WRF model does show the coastal low bringing precipitation slightly farther inland compared to the 12z GFS model. The SREF shows that this storm will not be another major snowstorm for the I-95 corridor, but rather a mix of rain and snow for many. Most of Pennsylvania will see the precip start as snow showers and turn over to either all rain or a mix of sleet and freezing rain as warmer air will be advected from the south. As the coastal storm moves up into the Canadian maritimes tuesday night into wednesday, cold air will sweep back into the western mountains of PA with warmer temperatures remaining for the Susquehanna Valley. Lake-enhanced snow showers will likely set up on wednesday as a tight pressure gradient forms from the deepening coastal low bringing blustery NW winds.

 

Long Term:

 

Thursday and friday we could be seeing more snow as an area of low pressure moves into the area overnight on thursday. The forecast models show the low pressure system dipping down to the Gulf coast where it could gain significant moisture, so we will have to keep an eye on this storm as it could definitely bring measureable snow to much of Pennsylvania. Following the storm on friday, very cold air will again infiltrate the northeast for the weekend. Lake-effect snow may set up for northwestern PA and the northern mountains over the weekend as well.

 

- Josh Aikins