Monday Night Technical Discussion

Synopsis

Warm air aloft will cause snow showers to change over to rain and freezing rain tonight except for northern counties where snow showers will persist. The precipitation will exit the state to the northeast Tuesday morning as scattered rain showers. Warm air advection will persist for Tuesday and temperatures will warm up. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening and bring cold air back into the area for the rest of the week. A northwesterly flow will persist for the end of the week, which will produce scattered lake effect snow showers Tuesday night through Friday morning. We will need to keep an eye on a system that will begin to approach the state from the southwest Sunday afternoon, which could bring us another batch of snow.

Short Term (Monday night through Tuesday night) 

As precipitation moves across the state to the northeast, warm air advection will cause precipitation to change over to rain and freezing rain for the majority of the state. Snow showers are likely to persist Monday night for northern counties and higher elevations. The 18Z NAM and the 18Z GFS are agreeing, as they have the precipitation east of the state by around 18Z. Any precipitation in the state after Tuesday morning will change over to scattered rain showers for the rest of the day. The state will warm up Tuesday afternoon and southeastern portions of the state will soar into the 50's for a high temperature. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday evening and the cold air will return along with a northwesterly flow.

Long Term (Wednesday morning into the weekend)

The northwesterly flow will persist through Friday morning and provide a chance for scattered lake effect snow showers for northwestern counties. Lake effect snow showers could reach far southern counties Thursday night into Friday morning. Saturday looks to be calm and dry, but Sunday will be interesting due to a system approaching the state from the southwest. We will need to watch this system, as the 18Z GFS is indicating a large batch of snow falling across most of the state Sunday evening through Monday morning. 

~ Aaron Herbert