Synopsis
A mid-latitude cyclone gaining strength in the south-central Appalachians will mature as it heads north overnight. The winds will pick up and the wintry mix will begin from southwest to northeast: daybreak in Pittsburgh to four o'clock in the Poconos. The changeover from snow to a mix will be quicker west of the Allegheny Ridge and slower further east. This system will be gone in about 24 hours and we're left with drier and less windy conditions… except in the western half of the state, where back-end and lake-effect snows will occur on Wednesday. As for the long-range, models indicate the upper-level low will stall over the northeast US and result in lots of clouds and the occasional snow flurry.
Models Used: 12z ECMWF, 18z & 00z GFS, NAM, & Hi-Res NAM
Short Term
Model consensus with a warmer and slightly drier solution seems to be the most reasonable. Snow and ice accumulations will be light across the western third of the state where sleet and plain rain would dominate. The higher elevations in central PA will see heavy snow change over to moderate freezing grain, with snow accumulating 3-6 inches and ice accumulations of at least a tenth-inch. Eastern PA would see 2-5 inches of snow before the changeover to wintry mix with little additional ice and snow accumulations.
Long Range
Northwest flow over Lake Erie and the upper-level low stalling over PA will result in a dismal end-of-week for the Commonwealth.
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