Synopsis:
Two low pressure systems will bring snow to most of the Commonwealth between now and Tuesday morning. One of the lows is off the east coast of North Carolina, which will wasn't much of a factor. The other is over eastern Kentucky, which, as of 03z, was bringing snow to southwestern PA. Once this clears out, northwest flow will dominate the forecast for much of the work week, meaning lake-enhanced, back-end snows and lake-effect precipitation at least through Thursday. High pressure will slowly move overhead, arriving on-time for the weekend.
Models Used: 12z ECMWF, 15z SREF, 18z GFS, 18z & 00z NAM & Hi-Res NAM; Preference: General Model Consensus
Short-term:
Precipitation should start to fall across the remainder of the state from southwest to northeast by 09z or 12z (daybreak) and taper after nightfall Monday. When all is said and done, about 3-7 inches should fall in southwest PA, 2-4 inches in northwest and central PA, 1-3 inches in northeast PA, and 3-5 inches in southeast PA. Then, the northwest flow sets-up, bringing more dreary weather for Tuesday & Wednesday with accumulating snows for western PA likely.
Long-Range:
Not much to discuss in the long range outlook as a large ridge of high pressure gradually moves into the state over the course of the week.
-Jaron Breen
Two low pressure systems will bring snow to most of the Commonwealth between now and Tuesday morning. One of the lows is off the east coast of North Carolina, which will wasn't much of a factor. The other is over eastern Kentucky, which, as of 03z, was bringing snow to southwestern PA. Once this clears out, northwest flow will dominate the forecast for much of the work week, meaning lake-enhanced, back-end snows and lake-effect precipitation at least through Thursday. High pressure will slowly move overhead, arriving on-time for the weekend.
Models Used: 12z ECMWF, 15z SREF, 18z GFS, 18z & 00z NAM & Hi-Res NAM; Preference: General Model Consensus
Short-term:
Precipitation should start to fall across the remainder of the state from southwest to northeast by 09z or 12z (daybreak) and taper after nightfall Monday. When all is said and done, about 3-7 inches should fall in southwest PA, 2-4 inches in northwest and central PA, 1-3 inches in northeast PA, and 3-5 inches in southeast PA. Then, the northwest flow sets-up, bringing more dreary weather for Tuesday & Wednesday with accumulating snows for western PA likely.
Long-Range:
Not much to discuss in the long range outlook as a large ridge of high pressure gradually moves into the state over the course of the week.
-Jaron Breen
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