Thursday Afternoon Discussion

Synopsis: Cold air will continue to filter in from the north over the next few days as a disturbance to the northeast slowly begins to move out of the region.  Drier air moves in for the weekend with another disturbance brushing by to our south early next week.

Short Term:  A northwesterly flow has dominated the area today allowing for lake enhanced clouds to filter in.  Also surface heating in the morning and cold air aloft allowed for clouds to develop across inland portions of the state.  With an unfrozen lake Erie and 850-1000mb temperatures below -13°C, lake effect snow showers are expected in the northwestern portion of the state as the flow over the lake dominates through Friday.  For the rest of the state, snow showers will not likely make it past the ridge line in the center of the state allowing for dry and partly sunny skies to hold into Saturday.  Temperatures will remain below average.

Long Term:  Saturday will be mostly sunny across the state as our lingering disturbance in the northeast finally moves out.  Dry air will filter in allowing for clouds to dissipate.  Temperatures will still remain below average as no significant warm air advection is expected.  Clouds increase for Sunday as our next disturbance begins to take shape and move into the region.  Sunday night is when precipitation is likely to start as the disturbance brushes by to our south.  Light snow showers are expected for much of the state but some rain may mix in down by the PA/MD border.  Below average temperatures are expected through all of next week.