Thursday, March 28, 2013

Thursday Morning Forecast

Synopsis:  Temperatures will finally begin to moderate a bit as we head into Easter Weekend. We can expect temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 as we head into Friday and Saturday. Today it will remain cloudy with a slight chance of a rain/snow shower. Our next storm system will them approach from the southwest on Sunday. Unfortunately, it appears that we will have some nasty weather on Easter. That storm system will then move out on Monday with just a chance of lingering rain and/or snow showers. Thereafter it looks like we will remain storm free for a while with temperatures climbing into the lower 50s.

Short Term:  It looks like this will be the last day we have to deal with the persistent NW flow we've experienced for the past few days from a stubborn low up to our northeast. Before our next big system moves through, a weak ridge looks to build over the region, providing a decent amount of sunshine and seasonable temps.

Long Term:  Our next system will be associated with a cutoff 500 mb disturbance swinging down through the Great Lakes. According to recent GFS, it's associated surface low isn't forecast to make it's way into the US, but instead swing down toward the Great Lakes and then back north into Canada. But, we will see the effects of its frontal systems, though. Once the cold front passes through the region, providing us with mixed rain and snow showers, the 500 mb disturbance becomes more amplified, inducing the birth of a secondary low in the cold front of the original system. Models are not quiet sure how to handle this secondary disturbance, which is currently forecast to develop over the Carolina's and ride the coast up into the Canadian Maritimes. Should models tend towards strengthening of this system, areas on the East Coast (including eastern PA) should remain alert for additional snowfall (yes, snow) and mixed precipitaton.


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