Synopsis
Mild weather is on tap for us midweek this week, but a strong cold front hints at some severe weather Wednesday along the strong cold front that will bring us back into reality Thursday. The ride will be breezy and muggy, but afterwards we'll be stuck with mid-teen wind chills
Short Term (Now thru Tuesday Night w/hints at Wednesday)
The line of showers that is crossing through now will be officially out of the state in a couple hours, but the ridges and valleys will see some topographic enhancement with spotty, light showers overnight. On Tuesday, a 500mb ridge will pass over, helping to set up a mean southerly flow throughout the 1000mb-500mb layer. At the surface, the tip of a warm front will graze across the state delivering a light shower or two across the ridges and valleys north of the PA turnpike. Over time, warmn air willadvect helping to kick up the highs into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday, then into the 50s and low 60s Wednesday (this is based on a combo of MOS and DMO, so keep an eye on how these temps fluctuate, its all relative to the frontal organization.
Long Term (Wednesday thru the weekend)
Things get dicey Wednesday as strong OVA helps develop the low that stems the intense cold front that will be on our doorstep. The tough part here is the timing. The 12z NAM lags the GFS, with the NAM moving the front through an hour or two ahead of the GFS, though the GFS rushes rain into the state 3 hours faster than the NAM. Nonetheless, both show heavy precip, and the forecasted soundings imply Cb, which imply thunderstorms during the front's passage, so keep an eye on this indeed as the event draws near. The rain essentially sticks around for the entire day, with the later day heavy rain impacting the Eastern areas the most with up to 2" when it's all over Thursday morning. Beyond this, the strong cold front will put the state highs back below the freezing mark, but we won't see the deep chills that we saw last week. Thursday, the wind chill will be a must to observe, currently, with temps and winds, looks like single digit to low teen wind chills Thursday, moving more into the teens Friday
No comments:
Post a Comment