Synopsis
Warmer weather will continue to make its way into the state for the beginning of the week. A strong cold front will follow closely behind bringing a chance for some severe weather ahead of the front Wednesday. As the cold front moves through, arctic air will return for the weekend.
Short Term: (Now thru Tuesday Night)
Showers will diminish across the state overnight as the area of low pressure moves into New England. As seen on the 500mb GFS/NAM models, a strong ridge will pass over us on Tuesday as a trough down-stream to the southwest approaches. The ridge will bring warm air advection and temperatures in the 40's for most of the state with 50's possible for southern and western portions of the state.
Long Term: (Wednesday thru the weekend)
Increased pre frontal advection will lead to temperatures in the upper 50's statewide on Wednesday. Models such as the GFS and NAM have been trending warmer, so would not be surprised to see some areas reach 60 degrees. The NAM has the cold front moving through slightly quicker than the GFS, but both models agree on rain entering the western portions of the state around 15Z on Wednesday. Warm temperatures during the day on Wednesday will lead to instability, allowing for widespread showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front pushes through. Some of the thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours as high CAPE is expected with the low level warm air advection. As the rain exits the state Wednesday night, cold air advection from a northwesterly flow behind the front will bring cold air back for Thursday along with a chance for some lake effect snow for much of northwestern Pennsylvania. The arctic air will keep high temperatures in the 20's for the weekend and a system moving to the south of us could provide another chance for some snow on Sunday.
A.J. Herbert
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