Thursday Evening Technical Discussion

 Synopsis

High pressure will slowly weaken during the evening as it moves off to the southeast. It will make romm for a weak clipper system that will cross the commonwealth tomorrow and strengthen as it approaches the Atlantic Ocean.  The clipper should deliver a wide swath of 1-3" of snow across the state. During the weekend, scattered snow showers will continue before temperatures begin to moderate as we approach the start of next week.

Short Term (Friday morning through Saturday evening)
A weak low pressure system moving through the northern plains tonight will scoot off the east bringing snowy conditions for the Commonwealth Friday. During the morning, skies will become cloudy and the snow will start falling across western areas around midday. This will keep temperatures on the cool side as maximum temperatures struggle to reach the mid-to-upper teens. The majority of the state will see around a QPF of 0.1-0.2 inches. Due to temperatures in the teens, there will be very high snow to liquid ratios which may reach 15:1 to 20:1. These high snow ratios will allow 1-3" of snow with localized amounts of up to 4". As the upper-level trough weakens and moves off to the northeast, temperatures will increase on Saturday as highs reach the mid-to-upper 20's. A decent northwesterly flow will allow more lake-effect snow showers to affect the central and western areas of the state Saturday.

Long Term (Sunday to Tuesday)

Behind this low pressure, a ridge of high pressure will control our weather pattern and give us clear skies Sunday. Under these clear skies, high temperatures will reach the mid-to-upper 20's with a few southeast areas approaching 30 degrees Fahrenheit. By Sunday, the upper level trough will retreat and the ridge will build in from the west. Ahead of a low pressure system, warm air advection will commence and cause lows to only reach the upper teens and lower 20s. As clouds increase, the cold air will begin to erode. How long the cold air will remain is yet to be determined which means there is the chance for a smorgasbord of precipitation. If the cold air is stubborn enough, it could lead to mixed precipitation with wet snow, sleet and freezing rain. High temperatures will reach the mid 30's across the much of state Monday. As the warm air advection increases Monday night, low temperatures won't fall much and with Tuesday's high temperatures approaching the mid 40s, all the mixed precipitation will turn to rain.