Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Wednesday Night

Synopsis: A wave of low pressure developing over SE US will continue to bring a widespread wintry mix of precipitation to the commonwealth into Wednesday. A weak cold front will usher in below normal temps and bring a few snow showers later in the week. Some moderation is expected for the weekend before a blast of arctic air comes our way early next week.

Short Term: Wintry precipitation has already begun to spread across the region as a weak low pressure system makes its way towards the SE coast. Intensified upper level divergence because of an pertinent 300mb jet streak coupled with Pacific moisture being pumped into the continental US will cause a light to moderate event. Precipitation type is tricky because a cold dome of high pressure continues to usher in cold air at the surface; however, warm air advection aloft sets up a layer of warmer air. Points North of I80 should see all snow, as all levels of the atmosphere will remain below freezing. Points just south will see a wintry mix turn to rain. The system will be all set and done by late Wed. A Canadian low pressure system will drop a cold front through the area Thursday, bringing temperatures below normal to end the week. Off and on snow showers can be expected, especially in the ridges.

Long Term: Low pressure will track well to the North late Friday, putting the commonwealth in the warm sector. Slight warming to around normal can be expected for the weekend, before another system moves through the area early next week. Accumulating snow in the mountains is possible. All model guidance continues to point towards an arctic blast of cold air setting up midweek. The Euro is especially gracious, bringing 500mb heights down to around 5000m.


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