Synopsis
Cold air damming has served as the main coolant across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, keeping most areas at least 10 degrees below normal. Damming will stick around until Tuesday prior to a cold frontal passage Wednesday, followed by a return to normal as the weekend approaches. The Wednesday cold front is the hot button here, for it could bring severe storms into Happy Valley.
Short Term (Now until Wednesday night)
A high off the coast of Maine has created a rige that has been sitting along the eastern U.S. border throughout today. This has remained stagnant due to a block setup via negative NAO. This block will keep the high in place, prolonging CAD until Tuesday night when a 500mb trough will create a dent in the block. Of course, with CAD, temperatures will remain below average throughout the period, even later this week (indirectly dammed). Besides this, the next big thing will be the cold front set to strike Wednesday. Here, there is a discrepancy in which the 12z NAM and GFS time the front differently, with the NAM at 18z and the GFS at 15z(supported by 12z EURO). The GFS also implies the front falling apart over central PA, whereas the NAM intensifies a squall line overtop central PA. the 15z SREFs dance around those times, with the mean aligned with the GFS solution, yet the intensity falls near the NAM solution. The Nam though, after reviewing soundings, implies a 40ish knot 0-6km shear with minimal CAPE, showing little convective potential yet a possibly potent storm, but nothing like a tornado watch like last week as of now.
Long Term (Thursday and Friday)
Little to discuss here, after the front passes, the state will return to the below average conditions like today, only a receding 540 line will imply warming to normal conditions Thursday and Friday, yet Thursday will yield a well below average high due to the front, but a high will be moving in from the west, adding a solar component to weekend warming, the GFS and Nam are showing a weak clipper passing to our north, which could spell light showers along the northern counties. The NAM soundings imply dry conditions during the time in which showers pass, so this seems iffy, yet the 540 line being south of the precip implies a shot for mixed precip, yet the sounding's busting it. Besides this, the weekend looks dry.
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