Monday PM Disco 4-15-2013 - Blue and White Washout!?

Synopsis

Instead of being "stuck in a rut", we'll be "stuck in a trough" for the next few days. The tail end of a cold front will sweep across the stte tomorrow afternoon, yet its home trough will oscillate through the midweek before converting into a warm front later on. Expect dramatic warmups prior to the cold fronts in question, for a strong stream of warm advection will preced the cold fronts for Tuesday afternoon and Friday night, we definitely had to emphasize a warm deviation from MOS for the contest.

Short-Term (now through Wednesday)

Firstly, the consistency in timing and intensity displayed by the 12z NAM, GFS, and EURO is stunning, it's a rarity to see all 3 with near exact similar solutions for precipitation this weekl. Essentially, the remainder of today will be influence by gravity wave cloud formation in addition to upsloping showers.  Tuesday, the upsloping will be key to the formation of showers across the ridges and valleys of the Apps,  for the cold front carrying the synoptic lift will be falling apart prior to its traversal of the mountain range. Showers will remain scattered on the far lee side out by the Delaware River, and there will be little in the way of post frontal clearing as itas trough will affix itself to the certral area of the state, and rotate clockwise until a new warm front forms within the trough as midweek moves along

Long Term (Wednesday evening into the weekend)

As the trough realigns itself for the warm front's formation, Thursday will feature a steady increase to the southerly component of the wind(15 panel NAM shows this well) this will lead to a steady warm conveyor that will setup along the eastern U.S., giving potential for near 80 degree temperatures despite the GFSX MOS output. This will conflict, however, with  upsloping ahead of the main frontal  bands, scattered storm activity will be prevalent Friday afternoon. the potent front will combine with upsloping to produce some thunderstorms for Friday evening, however there has been nothing to suggest that model timing is off, for distinguishing features have yet to form.