Monday PM Disco- a week of Warmth 4-8-2013

Synopsis

Upon the arrival of a warm air mass to kick off the week's summer preview, a few thunderstorms rolled through the valleys. Expect to see more of that to our north as the week progresses, but the main issue is the bulky ridge that has positive 500mb height anomalies over the state, giving us temperatures well in the 70s for the week. Many bands of precip will pass to our north, and those will be associated with a front that will lag in movement until the ridge recededs and ushers in the system for Friday. Beyond that, expect a return to normal

Short Term (Now through Wednesday)

The outlook for this week will feature clouds and sun with sporadic showers, primarily to the west. The 12z Nam implied scattered showers along the western areas related to the stream of positive vorticity that the NAM throws in for Tuesday and Wednesday, as these bands appear to miss the state and join the northern cluster. The 15z SREF shows two small low pressure cells that pass along the northern border overnight, which isn't well agreed with the NAM and GFS runs from 12z. this is based on the overall descrpancy tat many of the models face in these types of patterns. Nonetheless, there is an agreement on cloud cover and temperature ontasts, the only issue is how the NAM build convective precip.

 

Long Term (Thursday onward)

Thursday will serve as the transition day in which a cold front ill prepare to hit Thursday night into Friday. The models generally agree on front timing, with the rain initiating in the west before 0z, starting as light shoers, turning to heavier rain and thunderstorms by around 4z. topographic lift would develop more of the tormy activity, yet, lack of  a westerly component to the wind could prevent significant buildup. Beyond this, MOS temperature outputs for Friday keep the state warm, yet the presence of rain should begin more of a noticeable drop in tempertures, and with the dryslot projected to affect the state by mid afternoon Friday, the night to follow will most likely be drier and cooler than modeled.