With the exception of a cold front approaching from the west and a coastal system expected to remain well off-shore, the next six days will be relatively quiet across the Commonwealth. Clear skies, light winds, warm days and cool nights greet the end of September & start of October.
Models Used: 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, 9z & 15z SREF, 12z NAM, and 12z Hi-Res NAM
Models are in general agreement with the overall synoptic pattern this week & precipitation probabilities for Sunday Night & Monday, with the SREFs best handling the precip. timing since only a few hundredths are expected to fall over the Allegheny Plateau on Monday, which are not being picked up by the deterministic models (NAM & Hi-Res NAM). Most of the rain (around a tenth-inch) will occur in Erie and Crawford counties Sunday night into Monday morning, and the coastal system will only affect coastal states.
-Jaron
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