Monday Morning Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Skies will remain cloudy throughout most of the Commonwealth as a front approaches from the west.  Showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front, but it appears to be weakening as it moves eastward.  As a result, anything more than light rain will likely be confined to the southeastern quarter of the state.  After the front passes overnight, clearer, warmer, and drier conditions will move into the region.  These conditions will remain in the area throughout the week and into the weekend, bringing temperatures in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and much lower dew points. 

Short Term:

A front approaching from the west will cross the state in the afternoon and evening, pushing the present moist air mass out of the area.  Although storms were previously expected with this front, it appears to be weakening in Ohio, as not much rain or even high clouds are indicated on satellite and radar.  This, combined with the fact that both NAM MOS and GFS MOS are predicting cloudy conditions for all but the southeastern quarter of the Commonwealth, indicates that additional convection will be limited and  rain will either not materialize or will be light as the front moves through the state.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible near Harrisburg and Philadelphia, however.  After the passage of the front, models and MOS agree that high and low temperatures will be fairly steady in the 70s and 50s, respectively.

Long Term:

High pressure will build into the state following the passage of the front, leading to markedly lower temperatures and dew points.  Some clouds will linger on Tuesday, but starting Wednesday, clear skies are expected.  Temperatures will remain relatively steady in the 70s, with State College hanging around 75 and the Southeast approaching 80.

Patrick Higgins