Tuesday Night Discussion

Synopsis:

High pressure will continue to build over the state and clear skies and dry conditions will follow. High temperatures will rise throughout the week until a cold front slowly moves across the region Saturday into Sunday morning bringing widespread showers throughout the weekend.

 

Short Term: (Tuesday night through Wednesday night)

As a ridge of high pressure continues to build over PA, comfortable conditions and clear skies will persist. Each day the high temperature will increase owing to the clear skies and lack of any other negative influence on temperature. High temperatures look to reach the upper 70's across the entire state by Friday indicated by the 18Z 12km NAM, with low 80's possible in southwestern counties. Clear skies and calm conditions at night will allow for significant radiative cooling throughout the week with higher elevations reaching the mid 30's Tuesday night. As the high pressure moves off the coast Friday and the low pressure begins to approach the area, a southwesterly flow will develop and help increase the temperatures through advection for the day, along with some moisture advection to provide a few more clouds. A cold front, associated with a low-pressure system in the Northwest progresses east throughout the week.

 

Long Term: (Thursday into the Weekend)

The high pressure that builds over the region throughout the week helps strengthen the low-pressure system to our northwest, which eventually moves northeast into Canada, as the ridge slowly moves off the coast early Friday morning. The low-pressure system looks to eventually become a cutoff low late Friday night indicated by the 18Z GFS. As the warm front associated with the system to the north becomes stagnant Friday afternoon, scattered showers are possible for western portions of the state. Otherwise, the majority of the precipitation will fall between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning as the cold front moves across the state. In the wake of the cold front high pressure will once again build over PA for the beginning of the workweek providing slightly lower temperatures attributed to a rather shallow trough.

 

~ A.J. Herbert