SYNOPSIS
High pressure will begin to move away from the region as a low pressure system moves through the Midwest. Following the passage of the warm front on Tuesday afternoon, higher, summerlike temperatures will again affect the state. Thunderstorms will be possible following this warm front, but the greatest convection will come on Thursday, when a cold front will pass through the region. High pressure will surge back into the region on Friday and Saturday, bringing with it a return to autumnal temperatures.
Short-Term (Through 0z Thursday)
High pressure is expected to erode throughout the day on Monday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The 6z GFS moves the warm front through the region a bit quicker than the 6z NAM, but both models expect warm air advection to propel temperatures into the 80s across the state on Tuesday, with 90s possible in the Southeast. Both models offer a chance of precipitation as the warm front passes, with the NAM expecting more precipitation, due to the later passage of the front and resulting increased chance of convection; precipitation is unlikely to be widespread, however. Similar conditions will exist on Wednesday, with a chance of thunderstorms and summerlike temperatures in the 80s and low 90s. Expect conditions to become stickier on Wednesday as well.
Long-Term (Beyond 0z Thursday)
Temperatures will remain in the 80s for most of the state on Thursday, but will be limited by a strong cold front that is expected to pass through the region in the afternoon and evening. The GFS is delaying this cold front a bit more than the NAM, allowing for more heating and consequently more convection. Following Thursday's potentially strong storms, high pressure will again fill into the region. Clear skies and temperatures in the 60s and 70s can be expected throughout the state on Friday and into the weekend.
~Patrick Higgins
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