SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front will alter Thursday's weather pattern slightly, despite a relatively low risk of precipitation. This will set up for very cold overnight lows into early Friday. High pressure will define the weather picture heading into the first half of the weekend, while the next FROPA on Sunday could bring at least a small amount of rain to most of Pennsylvania.
SHORT-TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
A weak cold front is expected to slide into northern Pennsylvania early Thursday morning. 21z SREF shows the greatest chance of measurable precipitation just crossing the PA/NY border right around sunup on Thursday. Even at that, it seems like a long shot to see measurable precip at any station perhaps besides KBFD. Temperatures will be moderated by the front on Thursday, though, with highs appearing to be capped in the low 70s across the state at best. Temperatures will also fall to very cold levels Thursday night into Friday morning, with lows dipping into the 30s in parts of Northern PA (GFS MOS gives KBFD a low of 29 Thursday night, while KUNV gets a still chilly 41). The risk of frost seems relatively low, but it will be a chilly start for almost everyone.
LONG-TERM (BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY)
The generally calm weather period continues through the first half of the upcoming weekend with high pressure sliding across the state on Friday and positioning itself off the Delmarva on Saturday. This will usher in some WAA for Saturday boosting temperatures back to the upper 70s across much of the state. The next rain maker, such that it is, enters the picture on early Sunday with a cold front stemming from a low way up in eastern Quebec. The 12z Euro keeps the rain risk around longer, while the 18z GFS seems to present the possibility of higher rainfall amounts. Another large ridge of high pressure along with rising heights should mean the start of next week is pleasant as well.
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