Synopsis:
The fast moving clipper system last night dropped an inch or two of snow on parts of the state made its way out fairly quickly last night and in its wake high pressure is moving in, setting up our next storm system tonight. Tonight's storm will bring widespread wintry mix to and snow across the state, but will move through relatively quickly. Things will clear out behind it for the start of the weekend, but warmer air, showers and rain will begin to make their way in Sunday into Monday as a relatively strong cold front approaches from the West. The front will move through the state quickly on Monday, bringing a bout of heavy rain and perhaps even a rumble of thunder in spots. By Tuesday, things will become mellow as a chilly high pressure system scoot to our North. No significant weather appears until late next week when a storm system f! rom the gulf region might makes its way north.
Short Term:
The clipper system that moved through last night, might be most significant not in its actual initial impacts, but in how it has set up tonight's storm. The clipper was essentially an elongated frontal boundary with waves of energy along it. Behind the clipper a relatively small, but very chilly high pressure system has made its way in. As the surface high drifts to the east, it will maintain a cold north and northeasterly flow on the surface across much of the state. Tonight, as a relatively weak area of low pressure makes its way east and north, snow will break out in the cold air dammed up against and in-between the mountain ridges of Pennsylvania. A relatively strong low level jet stream out of the south tonight will have two signif! icant impacts. First of all, it will produce a heavy pocket of precipitation northeast of the storm center. Second, it will bring in enough warm air aloft to change the precipitation to sleet and freezing rain across a good portion of the southern half of the state. Snow accumulations will likely surpass 6 inches in a swath through the center of the state and decrease north and south due to either mixed precipitation or changes in proximity to the storm. The precipitation will exit the state entirely by tomorrow afternoon and by Sunday morning, with snow and ice covering a good portion of Pennsylvania, temperatures will plunge into the teens and perhaps single digits in colder spots by Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin their rebound on Sunday with considerable cloudiness and rain or snow showers, as a storm system begins to make its way toward the great lakes.
Long term:
The start of the work week will feature a considerable warm up as a strong southerly flow sets up ahead of the next cold front. As the front passes on Monday, there will likely be a period of considerably heavy rain. Though CAPE values will remain relatively low, it's not inconceivable that the front comes with a rumble of thunder or two as temperatures will be fairly warm ahead of it (perhaps approaching 50°). With the passage of the front and storm system on Monday things will become breezy on Monday night, but not tremendously cold, by any mean. Behind the front will be seasonable conditions for the early and middle part of next week as the core of the arctic air will remain locked over Eastern Canada. The middle of next week also features the! potential for a weak easterly flow to set up. While it might not produce a whole lot of rain or snow, it could bring cloudier condition than one might initially expect.
byJoshua Glazer
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