Synopsis:
Precip ahead of a warm front tonight: freezing rain. Cold front changes the freezing rain to plain rain on Monday. For Tuesday, AM rain, PM lake effect snow. The lake effect confines itself to Erie after sunset. We then wait under high pressure until a front approaches on Thursday, which could bring rain or snow during the later part of the week.
Models Used: 15Z SREF, 12Z NAM & GFS
Short term:
NWS Alert: Freezing rain advisory in effect from now until 8 AM tomorrow.
The warm front ahead of the system is upon us.. we're seeing the clouds now. A huge ridge will form from the warm front but the temp. & thickness gradients are small. The cold front will bring those values back to where they currently are, which is 5 PM on the 22nd. Earlier models showed the cold front to be much more powerful but the trend continues to favor the above scenario.
The front exits and lake effect snows form on Tuesday. Normally, the lake effect snow machine is off due to frozen lakes, but until a few weeks ago, temperatures this winter were above average and thus the Lakes haven't frozen over yet.
Long range:
High pressure will quickly build in behind the front then exit on Thursday AM as a mid-latitude cyclone approaches from the west. Precipitation could fall as rain, snow or a mix (Source: NWS's Hazardous Weather Outlook) but it is too early to tell and should be monitored this week.
-Jaron Breen
Precip ahead of a warm front tonight: freezing rain. Cold front changes the freezing rain to plain rain on Monday. For Tuesday, AM rain, PM lake effect snow. The lake effect confines itself to Erie after sunset. We then wait under high pressure until a front approaches on Thursday, which could bring rain or snow during the later part of the week.
Models Used: 15Z SREF, 12Z NAM & GFS
Short term:
NWS Alert: Freezing rain advisory in effect from now until 8 AM tomorrow.
The warm front ahead of the system is upon us.. we're seeing the clouds now. A huge ridge will form from the warm front but the temp. & thickness gradients are small. The cold front will bring those values back to where they currently are, which is 5 PM on the 22nd. Earlier models showed the cold front to be much more powerful but the trend continues to favor the above scenario.
The front exits and lake effect snows form on Tuesday. Normally, the lake effect snow machine is off due to frozen lakes, but until a few weeks ago, temperatures this winter were above average and thus the Lakes haven't frozen over yet.
Long range:
High pressure will quickly build in behind the front then exit on Thursday AM as a mid-latitude cyclone approaches from the west. Precipitation could fall as rain, snow or a mix (Source: NWS's Hazardous Weather Outlook) but it is too early to tell and should be monitored this week.
-Jaron Breen
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