Synopsis: A weakening clipper system will approach the area tomorrow, spreading snow showers across much of the state. That will depart quickly tomorrow night, giving way to high pressure for Friday. The next chance at precipitation will come on Saturday, with an approaching system from the west. This storm will be warmer and will have more moisture to work with.
Short Term: Mid to upper level clouds will continue to increase overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. A cold front associated with a surface low pressure in Canada will swiftly sweep through the region, west to east, through the day. It will be moisture starved however. Western zones may see upwards of 4 inches due to a very cold layer of air at the 850mb level, giving high water to snow ratios. It should also be noted that northern zones may see some breezy conditions. As the clipper moves south and west totals will likely decrease to a dusting or less from State College to points south and east. Clearing will occur through Thursday night as an area of high pressure approaches on Friday, keeping conditions dry and tranquil.
Long Term: A larger and more complex system will approach the area late Friday night into Saturday. Model guidance agrees on the timing and the amount of moisture associated with this system, but the precipitation type remains in question. 00z NAM shows a region of light snow develop across the state with a passing warm front from a system developing in the Ohio Valley. This snow would then change to a sleet and freezing rain mix as temperatures remain well below freezing at the surface, but a layer of warm air slides in at 850mb. 00 GFS wants to keep it a mainly snow event in all points north of Altoona. If this solution is correct, there could be some minor to major accumulations. In either case, this system will bring some wintry precipitation, and will move out for Sunday.
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Paul Svenson
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Paul Svenson
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