Synopsis:
Three disturbances will move through the region during the forecast period.
Short-term:
Radar reflectivities are preceding surface snowfall reports this evening. Sporadic reports of moderate snow have appeared in OH and IN from earlier today. We are maintaining the view of generally light accumulations and for only a several hour event.
For especially northern and central PA, low temperatures tonight will likely fall below MOS values, with clear skies, abnormally light winds, and surface snow cover are expected after the fro-pa. The behavior of the SREF plumes helps confirm this possibility as several members drop well below the consensus. There is a similar setup for bottoming-out temps on Saturday night.
Long-term:
Both the WRF and GFS have scattered rain/snow showers appearing Sunday night well ahead of the approaching storm from the west. The 18Z WRF has a weak closed low near the Delmarva peninsula. Would recommend weak language towards this possibility until a more coherent structure appears in later model runs, or at least until the forecast lead time diminishes.
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