Synopsis:
High pressure exits tonight as a warm front moves through the State from SW to NE overnight, resulting in a mixed bag of precipitation (light in intensity overall) changing to all rain early tomorrow morning. The cold front moves through the Commonwealth tomorrow night into Friday, with temperatures dropping during the day. Isolated rain or snow showers are possible early as the system exits. High pressure builds in behind it; then, the high heads offshore to the south and east keeping that part of the state dry while lake effect snow and a clipper system affect the northern and western portions of PA on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
Models Used: 12Z NAM & GFS; 15Z SREF Plumes and Prob. Charts; Raw temp. outputs and MOS
Short-term:
Over the past six hours, a stationary front has formed in an inverted trough - stretching from the same low pressure system that is affecting TX and LA to southern PA. A vort. max is located over Cape Girardeau, MO and the divergence aloft ahead of it will lead to cyclogenesis above Bowling Green, KY... right along the stationary front. The wave will propagate north-northeastward from there thanks to advection, with the warm front to the east and the cold front to the south. As for PA, the 540 line and 850-mb 0-deg.-C isotherm will be located near I-80, allowing a mixed bag to fall as the warm front heads north. he cold front follows on Thursday evening.
Long-range:
SREFs and GFS Model showed two systems affecting northern and western PA during the weekend. Timing will be an issue but precipitation type is all snow.
Temperatures: RAW Data recommended for highs and lows on Thursday and Friday. Use MOS for the rest of the period.
-Jaron Breen
High pressure exits tonight as a warm front moves through the State from SW to NE overnight, resulting in a mixed bag of precipitation (light in intensity overall) changing to all rain early tomorrow morning. The cold front moves through the Commonwealth tomorrow night into Friday, with temperatures dropping during the day. Isolated rain or snow showers are possible early as the system exits. High pressure builds in behind it; then, the high heads offshore to the south and east keeping that part of the state dry while lake effect snow and a clipper system affect the northern and western portions of PA on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
Models Used: 12Z NAM & GFS; 15Z SREF Plumes and Prob. Charts; Raw temp. outputs and MOS
Short-term:
Over the past six hours, a stationary front has formed in an inverted trough - stretching from the same low pressure system that is affecting TX and LA to southern PA. A vort. max is located over Cape Girardeau, MO and the divergence aloft ahead of it will lead to cyclogenesis above Bowling Green, KY... right along the stationary front. The wave will propagate north-northeastward from there thanks to advection, with the warm front to the east and the cold front to the south. As for PA, the 540 line and 850-mb 0-deg.-C isotherm will be located near I-80, allowing a mixed bag to fall as the warm front heads north. he cold front follows on Thursday evening.
Long-range:
SREFs and GFS Model showed two systems affecting northern and western PA during the weekend. Timing will be an issue but precipitation type is all snow.
Temperatures: RAW Data recommended for highs and lows on Thursday and Friday. Use MOS for the rest of the period.
-Jaron Breen
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