Synopsis: A storm system running NW and parallel to the Ohio River Valley will be passing to our NW today. Southwest/South air flow will be flowing up into the state, making it possibly the warmest day of the week. The associated cold front will push through, bringing the state back to winter for the rest of the week. Wednesday will be a calm day, before a clipper system runs through the state Thursday Evening. Friday will be a transitional day as we await a possible storm system that looks to run parallel with I76, meaning a wintry mix for much of the state Friday night into Saturday.
Short-term: Everyone in the state is at or above freezing and should warm up into the upper 30's, lower to mid-40's today, before the current cold front pushes through. Breezy conditions will pick up across the state as the storm system leaves the states and enters into Canada, with the NW wind behind the front, lake effect is also a concern for the Erie area. They are currently under a Lake Effect Snow Watch until Wednesday Afternoon. Wednesday for the rest of the state should be periods of clouds and sun as we have lake-effect clouds push their way southeast.
Long-term: Clouds will increase on Thursday as a clipper system makes its way towards us. This time, we have cold air in place, hence this clipper system will be mainly an all snow event for the state. The problem becomes, does the clipper system loose energy crossing the state, as the NAM & GFS suggest? Even the SREF losses some of the clipper's energy. Either way, we went with a period of light snow with minor accumulations at best for Thursday overnight into Friday for the state. Friday we clear out some, before the clouds work back in as a shortwave rumbles through the area Friday night into Saturday. At the current time the Low looks to travel along I76, which would leave rest of the state under a wintry mix, as we will have the 850mb 0c and 540mb markers within the state at this time. Also the gradient between the 540 and 570mb is very small, compared to the 540 and 510mb.
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Tyler B. Roys
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