Synopsis:
A cold front is making its way across eastern Ohio and will produce periods of snow between sunset tonight and the wee hours Monday morning. High pressure will settle to the south while we wait for a weak mid-latitude system to affect our weather (mainly clouds but snow cannot be ruled out) on Monday night through Wednesday night. For the end of the work week, a weak high will settle over the PA-NY border while a weak "nor'easter" affects extreme southern PA - something to watch later.
Models Used: 12Z GFS & NAM, Raw outputs used for temperature - SREF + PA NAM (15-prog. panel)
Tonight:
An extreme vorticity gradient (40 s^(-1) from Franklin, PA to Bradford, PA - 110 km) and a peak Omega value of -8 x 10^(-6) bar/ sec exists in West-Central PA. This indicates extreme vertical motion, leading to thunder-snow, which accompanies extreme snowfall events. This is likely this evening, especially when considering the METARS in Youngstown, Cleveland, & Akron were (or currently are) reporting thunder-snow.
Monday and Tuesday:
The high to the south sets up a track for the warm front as the low will then encounter a westerly flow aloft as it heads NE. Northern PA gets rain, mostly near the NY border. The cold front moves through from west to east. The rain builds along it but dries out as it hits the Appalachians. High pressure builds in behind it for Thursday. Extreme warmth will be noticeable after the warm front.
Long-range:
We'll be watching a nor'easter head eastward south of the Mason-Dixon line, blocked by the high pressure system building in behind the front. A cool down is likely. after the cold front moves through.
-Jaron Breen
A cold front is making its way across eastern Ohio and will produce periods of snow between sunset tonight and the wee hours Monday morning. High pressure will settle to the south while we wait for a weak mid-latitude system to affect our weather (mainly clouds but snow cannot be ruled out) on Monday night through Wednesday night. For the end of the work week, a weak high will settle over the PA-NY border while a weak "nor'easter" affects extreme southern PA - something to watch later.
Models Used: 12Z GFS & NAM, Raw outputs used for temperature - SREF + PA NAM (15-prog. panel)
Tonight:
An extreme vorticity gradient (40 s^(-1) from Franklin, PA to Bradford, PA - 110 km) and a peak Omega value of -8 x 10^(-6) bar/ sec exists in West-Central PA. This indicates extreme vertical motion, leading to thunder-snow, which accompanies extreme snowfall events. This is likely this evening, especially when considering the METARS in Youngstown, Cleveland, & Akron were (or currently are) reporting thunder-snow.
Monday and Tuesday:
The high to the south sets up a track for the warm front as the low will then encounter a westerly flow aloft as it heads NE. Northern PA gets rain, mostly near the NY border. The cold front moves through from west to east. The rain builds along it but dries out as it hits the Appalachians. High pressure builds in behind it for Thursday. Extreme warmth will be noticeable after the warm front.
Long-range:
We'll be watching a nor'easter head eastward south of the Mason-Dixon line, blocked by the high pressure system building in behind the front. A cool down is likely. after the cold front moves through.
-Jaron Breen
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