Monday Night Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

 

    The storm system that brought the showers to much of the state of Pennsylvania on Monday is on its way out. Behind it will be a seasonably chilly air mass, cold enough to produce lake effect and lake enhances snow showers on Tuesday. A relatively small and week area of high pressure will move across the state mid-week and as it moves out, warm air will gently begin to ascend over the the cool air mass in place producing clouds and a few showers. As a system passes to our south and a front moves through on Thursday, we'll see a greater chance of showers and rain. How close the storm comes to us is still a matter of some uncertainty, though more recent runs of the models are bring the storm further north with more significant precipitation for the state. By Friday and Saturday thing calm down a bit, though by late Saturday clouds might begin to increase with the approach of a more significant front; one which could spell bigger changes in temperatures for early next week.

 

Short Term:

 

       The temperature today really struggled to get into the 40's in many locations despite the strong southerly flow through a good portion of the lower levels. A part of this could have been due to snow cover on the ground. Presently, a fairly significant inversion across much of the state exists. By Tuesday things should clear out quite a bit with some sunshine, especially further south in the Commonwealth. The only precipitation possible would be relatively light lake effect and lake enhanced showers in the Northwest section and the Laurel Highlands. Wednesday morning might start out quite clear and cold, as high pressure will be moving overhead. However, an overrunning pattern will likely kick in by later in the day on Wednesday, bringing in greater cloudiness and even rain or snow showers.

 

Long Term:

 

     The models have wavered a bit on Thursday's storm. The latest run of the GFS rides a fairly significant, rain making storm system along a north-south oriented frontal boundary. This situation would mean a washout for Thursday afternoon and night, and perhaps even Friday morning in eastern sections. There seems little doubt that things will improve on Friday behind the front with some sunshine and seasonable temperatures. With a westerly flow for the start of the weekend, the arctic air will stay at bay. However, clouds will again increase late Saturday with the approach of the next frontal boundary. the front which moves through late Saturday, into early Sunday will shift the flow to a more northwesterly direction bringing in much colder air for early next week.

by Joshua Glazer