Synopsis
The train of clippers continues to roll as we have two that will affect us in the next 48 hours, with a third clipper that as for now appears too far north to strike. Otherwise we'll be seeing a little more mild weather going into the weekend.
Short Term (Monday evening thru overnight Tuesday)
With snow already falling in Pittsburgh, the clipper that will hit tonight is in full swing already. Both the 12z NAM and GFS are on with statewide snowfall, with the heaviest snow falling in the Southwest ridges and valleys, with more moderate accumulations in the southern half of PA. The NWS Pitt office mentioned 6"-12" up along the highest ridges in the southwest and laurel highlands for just tonight's clipper, but the 15z SREFs imply at most 8" in Latrobe and Johnstown for both clippers combined. This clippers will phase out before sunrise Tuesday, leaving on average up to 2"in the southern regions, with Pitt areas seeing from 3"-6" (6" is a stretch).the remaining areas will see up to an inch statewide, with ridges and the lakeshores of Eire capping at 2". Tuesday will remain dry during the day, but overnight, Cilpper #2 will roll in swiftly, precipitating for no more than 5 hours in each area of PA, leaving with it an additional inch or two statewide. For a durational perspective, the 12z NM and GFS have the clipper beginning to precipitate around 0z Wednesday in Erie, and by 12z the same day, the clipper will have completely fizzled out along the eastern counties.
Long Term( Wednesday into Friday)
After clipper 2 has subsided, it's associated low will have alighned itself to creat a mean northwesterly suface flow over the state, allowing for gravity wave clouds and short spurts of lake effect snow in Erie. High pressure will break all of these processes apart by the afternoon, allowing for partial clearing during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Thursday, another threat to the peace will come in the form of a third clipper, however this will appear too far north of us to drop any snow in the state, yet another system to our south is creeping up the Appalachians, ontinuong into Friday. The 12z GFS shows this system getting nudged away by a shortwave that will lag the clipper, keeping us in sort of a dryslot that will keep the sun shining over the state Thursday afternoon into Friday. Looking into the weekend and next week, a very strong cutoff low will begin to develop next Sunday over the Rockies, which will set up a strong ridge that will bring more mild air to the Northeast. Leading into a big rainmaker for next Monday. Keep an eye on this as the days roll along, cuz this could be the early spring that Phil was hinting at all along.
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