Monday Night Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

After a warm front passed through bringing warmer weather to the state Monday, a trailing cold front will follow quickly behind it overnight Monday. A southern system will ride up through the mid-Atlantic Wednesday possibly bringing a light to moderate snowfall across the state. After a break and some partial clearing Thursday, another weaker system should move north of the state on Friday bringing a flow over the Great Lakes and some lake effect snow showers.

 

Short Term (Tuesday-Thursday):

A cold front passing through the state Monday night will bring a northwesterly flow Tuesday and some cooler air. This should bring temperatures close to normal in the lower to mid-30's for much of the state. Tuesday night a system along the Gulf Coast begins to turn northeast towards the mid-Atlantic region. There is still large spread in the models for the system on Wednesday. The EURO is the southern outlier bringing light snow to southern Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. On the northern side of things is the NAM which brings a light snowfall to central Pennsylvania and moderate snow to southern portions of the state. The GFS is in the middle of the NAM and EURO at the moment bringing light snow to portions of central Pennsylvania and light to moderate snow across southern parts of the state. The GEFS and SREF ensembles still have large spread from member to member with some southern outliers and some northern outliers. At the moment favoring the GFS solution as the NAO is going negative and so the storm should not go straight out to sea. At this point it is a matter of waiting for one of the models to give in on a solution. The only thing with high confidence at this point is that snow will fall somewhere in the state on Wednesday. Expect some clearing Thursday before a weak clipper pushes through on Friday.

 

Long Term(Friday-Saturday):

A weaker clipper system will come down from Canada Friday morning. The consensus of the models is that it will track through New York with its only affect on Pennsylvania being a northwesterly flow and return of lake effect snow showers. The EURO and a few GEFS members do bring it far enough south for some light snow from the clipper to spread across western Pennsylvania. Skies should clear partially on Saturday as high pressure moves in briefly ahead of another possibly significant storm Sunday into Monday.