Synopsis:
High pressure heads east Monday as a mid-latitude cyclone organizing in the Southern Plains, will arrive on Tuesday into Wednesday. The upper-level low will stall over the Commonwealth for the end of the week into the weekend.
Models Used: 12z ECMWF, 18z GFS, 18z & 00z NAM, 00z Hi-Res NAM
Short-Term:
According to the HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion, the Euro & GFS were handling the timing and track of the low pressure system well, with the NAM also doing reasonably well. With highs expected to be in the upper 30s and lower 40s, most of the precipitation will be rain with wet snow mixing in. For the Laurel Highlands, according to the NWS discussion, with morning surface temperatures struggling to pass the freezing mark, a period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out.
Based on Hi-Res NAM guidance, there will be a period of windy conditions as the precipitation winds down on Wed. night into Thursday. Given its short duration, we did not include it in the General Discussion but did put it in the zone forecasts.
Long-Term:
The upper-level low will likely stall over the Commonwealth, bringing rain and wet snow to the western half of the state for the end of the week into the weekend.
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