Thursday, February 21, 2013

Thursday Morning Forecast

Synopsis:

We should expect below average temperatures across the commonwealth this morning with scattered flurries this morning. The weather will then become very unsettled after today. Tomorrow will feature a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain moving in after noon and continuing throughout day. Another impulse and rain and or snow may come through on Sunday, although there remains a lot of uncertainty with this storm system. In the longer range, temperatures look to remain at or just below normal with a storm system coming through every few days.

Short Term:

A strong ridge over the region will keep our skies partly clear through the rest of Thursday. This ridge will begin to break down, though, as the remnants of the storm that blasted the Plains moves into our region. Current NAM runs show QPF totals no higher than half an inch across the commonwealth with precipitation moving into the region around 15Z Friday morning. 

Long Term:

GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in strong agreement with the formation of a decent New England snowstorm on Saturday. The remnants of the Plains storm that affected our region is forecast to merge with a disturbance swinging up from the Gulf. These two systems will combine early Sunday morning off of Cape Cod and may dump a foot of snow in eastern MA and southern NH. Thankfully, though, other than a few snow showers in eastern PA (with 2-3 inches of accumulations), the commonwealth won't see much of the combined system. Expect a cold, cloudy weekend across PA and some scattered lake-effect snow showers on Monday once the storm scoots out to sea.

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