Synopsis...
Showers will move through the commonwealth early in the day Wednesday. High pressure will build in Thursday and persist through the end of the weekend.
Short Term...
A very broad cold front will move its way through the commonwealth during the day Wednesday, bringing consistent showers. As indicated by the 18Z GFS MOS, strong cold advection will occur behind this front. This will create a windy evening Wednesday night, and significantly drop temperatures for Thursday and Friday. The high pressure system mentioned will begin building in during the day Thursday, however, it will likely remain breezy and cold during the day Thursday as a deep upper-level trough pushes northeast. By Friday, both the GFS and the NAM push the high pressure system eastward, creating conditions favorable for moderate warm air advection to occur from the southwest - evidenced by the numerous solenoids present at 18Z Friday. High temperatures will rebound back into the high 40s / low 50s by Friday and rebound into the 50s by Saturday.
Long Term...
The high pressure system will hold in place through later in the day Sunday as another front pushes its way from the northwest. However, I am not sold on this front being a huge rain producer as the bulk of the PVA will still be well off to the NW of Erie, and an upper-level jet streak at this location indicates the commonwealth would be under the right exit region - all of this favoring little to no precipitation by the end of the day Sunday. As this front pushes closer though, and the jet streak moves along, a more significant rain event is possible early next week. This will be something to keep an eye on.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
Showers will move through the commonwealth early in the day Wednesday. High pressure will build in Thursday and persist through the end of the weekend.
Short Term...
A very broad cold front will move its way through the commonwealth during the day Wednesday, bringing consistent showers. As indicated by the 18Z GFS MOS, strong cold advection will occur behind this front. This will create a windy evening Wednesday night, and significantly drop temperatures for Thursday and Friday. The high pressure system mentioned will begin building in during the day Thursday, however, it will likely remain breezy and cold during the day Thursday as a deep upper-level trough pushes northeast. By Friday, both the GFS and the NAM push the high pressure system eastward, creating conditions favorable for moderate warm air advection to occur from the southwest - evidenced by the numerous solenoids present at 18Z Friday. High temperatures will rebound back into the high 40s / low 50s by Friday and rebound into the 50s by Saturday.
Long Term...
The high pressure system will hold in place through later in the day Sunday as another front pushes its way from the northwest. However, I am not sold on this front being a huge rain producer as the bulk of the PVA will still be well off to the NW of Erie, and an upper-level jet streak at this location indicates the commonwealth would be under the right exit region - all of this favoring little to no precipitation by the end of the day Sunday. As this front pushes closer though, and the jet streak moves along, a more significant rain event is possible early next week. This will be something to keep an eye on.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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