Synopsis: High pressure will move out of the area, as a storm system tracks NE over the Great Lakes. This will provide a change of air mass for the end of the week, but high pressure returns for the weekend. Look for the Lake Effect Machine to rev up on Friday.
Short-term: Valley fog should burn off this morning. The GFS has the storm system entering the Commonwealth overnight tonight, with very limited shower action. Only issue we have with this is that the cloud cover will begin to enter the state earlier than what the GFS is predicting. The Hi-Res NAM(both ARW & NMM) show cloud cover entering the state starting this afternoon in the Western portions of the state, while the rest of the state remains sunny until tonight. The NAM-ARW model shows even less showery activity overnight for the state, while the NMM-B shows a line moving across the state. We went with mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower in the western parts of the state. For Thursday, we moved the higher chances of showers to the eastern parts.
Long-term: With a sharp trough becoming negative over the Northeast, cold advection, and warm lake waters (the 13C rule of thumb does verify), lake effect showers cannot be ruled out for the Western areas of the state that normally see lake effect. Friday, both models show mostly cloudy conditions as that trough rolls its way out of the region. High pressure comes back to dominate the region for the weekend. Clouds roll back in as a stationary front sets up to the north and west of us on Sunday.
Kept temperatures near previous shift.
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Tyler B. Roys
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