Monday Afternoon Technical Discussion

Synopsis

Cloudy skies with scattered showers will remain across the state overnight. A clearing pattern begins tomorrow, and will lead to sunny skies and warm temperatures for much of the upcoming week.

Short Term (through 0z Wednesday)

Significant cloud cover and shower activity is still present across the state as of 5pm. There seems to be a strong model consensus of a few showers sticking around the area over the next few hours, but diminishing tomorrow morning. 15z SREF 6-hour precip probability models show the strongest probability of showers clearing by about 12z tomorrow, though some regions could see a few lingering showers (especially prevalent in the southern Ridge and Valley and Laurel Highlands regions, it appears). Otherwise, temperatures appear likely warm somewhat tomorrow, with most regions reaching 60s as highs for the first time in October! As Tuesday continues, expect cloud coverage to also be on the decrease throughout the state, as the upper level low finally shifts to the NE.

Long-Term (0z Wednesday – Sunday)

After the persistent upper level low pushes off to the east tomorrow afternoon, skies should clear up significantly for the rest of the week. An extremely large ridge builds in from the west and does not budge once it arrives! Showers will be nonexistent across the state with high pressure dominating. In fact, cloud cover is likely minimal, especially into Wednesday and beyond, when 850mb and 700mb RH values drive below the 50% mark, as supported by both the 12z and 18z runs of the WRF and the 12z GFS. Temperatures should rise to slightly-above-average values later in the week, with MOS pushing temperatures statewide into the 70s by Saturday (and in most locations Friday). In fact, MOS has a high Sunday in Altoona of 79 degrees!

~Devin Boyer